Mayer: Sean Manaea's MLB Draft Fate

*The MLB Draft starts tomorrow and is scheduled to run through Saturday*

Courtesy: gosycamores.com

What a long strange trip it has been for Sean Manaea. Well, actually I should rephrase. Manaea's journey to the MLB draft has been closer to a short yet exciting and unpredictable roller coaster. The Sycamores ace left hander put together a decent enough sophomore season; he was second team All-MVC, went 5-3 with a 3.34 ERA and 115 strikeouts in 105 innings pitched. A good season, but not enough to be considered a top tier draft pick.

However, the campaign was solid enough to earn him a spot with the Hyannis Harbor Hawks of the Cape Cod League, a hotbed for major league scouts during summer baseball. It was there he made a bit of an adjustment in his wind up bringing his hands over his head and things really took off. Manaea gained velocity on a fastball that had an incredible amount of natural movement. He combined that pitch with a devastating slider and nasty split change up. The result was a 5-1 record in eight starts with a 1.22 ERA and league leading 85 strikeouts in 57 innings.

Courtesy: capecodonline.com

Manaea grabbed all kinds of Cape Cod league awards in addition to being named to numerous college baseball pre-season award lists. He was being talked about as a possible top five pick in the draft. It all happened so fast. The year before Manaea had not even been a weekend starter for the Sycamores. I profiled Manaea in this story towards the beginning of the season when expectations were extremely high.

The southpaw did not disappoint. I wrote a blog post on April 24th, looking at what Indiana State had done so far and had this to say about Manaea: "Sean Manaea has been stalked by major league scouts all season and is expected to be a top five pick in the draft. Manaea is 5-3 over nine starts while accumulating a 1.57 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP (walks + hits/innings pitched). Hitters are batting only .195 against the big lefty with 72 strikeouts and 20 walks. In conclusion, Manaea is dominating as expected although he has seemed a bit off his last two outings (this could have to do with a hip injury sustained earlier this month)."

Take note of those last few words because here is where things really started to turn. Manaea dealt with this hip issue for at least a month. He didn't pitch poorly or struggle so outlandishly that it threw up red flags immediately, but something was off. He had too miss some starts and then after warming up in the first inning of the first game in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament had to leave. He wound up not pitching at all as ISU came up one game short of the finals. This time the cause was shoulder soreness.

The hip injury is going to put doubt into the mind of MLB evaluators simply becasue missing on a top ten pick is always painful. Add in shoulder problems and scouts are going to run, which has seemed to happened. Before the injuries Manaea was thought of in many front offices as "the biggest wild card in the draft." He has the build of a scout's dream; Left handed, 6'5", 235lbs. A great array of power pitches, but he had only recently turned into a truly dominating pitcher.

When scouts and draft experts added in the injuries, Manaea's draft stock has plummeted almost as quickly as it rose. Keith Law is thought of by many to be the preeminent voice in the MLB Draft (you can debate this, but either way he is quite knowledgeable). In his latest mock draft (insider required), Manaea has fallen out of the first round. Despite this, Law has the Sycamore's lefty listed as the eighth best prospect. Sports Illustrated's latest mock draft is a bit dated from May 30th, but had Manaea at 26th when he was originally slotted to be picked 9th. It would not surprise me to see him out of SI's first round if they come out with another mock.

Courtesy: MLB.com

After the Sycamores were eliminated by Wichita State in the MVC tournament I asked Coach Rick Heller and Manaea what lay ahead. The southpaw didn't give much away just saying it has always been his dream to play in the MLB and that he was still focusing on the present. The Sycamores coach had some interesting comments though implying that his lefty ace would need to see a significant offer or he could return to school. Following that it was learned Manaea was being advised by super agent Scott Boras and this article seemed to back up what Rick Heller had said previously.

Professional sports league drafts are full of speculation and question marks. Right now, the future of Sean Manaea may be more cloudy than any other prospect. The roller coaster has seen its ups and downs, but if I'm giving a personal opinion, it would not surprise me to see Manaea back on the Bob Warn field mound next year.