Mayer: What is Holding Sycamores Baseball Back?

(Stats effective 4/24/13 not including game vs IU)

I've been able to cover a good amount of Indiana State baseball games this year. Maybe it's because I have seen a disproportionate amount of wins (although I follow the non home games as well), but I get the feeling this squad is not living up to its potential. Indiana State is 10-3 at home, 5-11 away, and 2-3 in neutral territory. Those records definitely have meaning.

Courtesy gosycamores.com

Including the contest today at Indiana, ISU has 17 games remaining until the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. Currently, the Sycamores are in the bottom three of the MVC with an overall 17-17 record and a 7-8 mark in conference games. That just doesn't seem right to me.

When I see the Sycamores play, it looks like a pretty solid and mostly complete ball club. Rick Heller has a great pulse on his team and has garnered a great deal of respect. ISU has one of the best pitchers in the country, a lineup based on small ball and speed, and has played good defense for the most part. The Sycamores are not a bunch of mashers and seem committed to small ball, but that approach fits the players skill sets well.

Let's dive into the numbers a bit and see if we can find out what is holding the Sycamores back.

Starting Pitching

Courtesy: gosycamores.com

ISU has a pretty nasty 1-2 punch. Sean Manaea has been stalked by major league scouts all season and is expected to be a top five pick in the draft. Manaea is 5-3 over nine starts while accumulating a 1.57 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP (walks + hits/innings pitched). Hitters are batting only .195 against the big lefty with 72 strikeouts and 20 walks. In conclusion, Manaea is dominating as expected although he has seemed a bit off his last two outings (this could have to do with a hip injury sustained earlier this month).

Devin Moore has gone a bit unnoticed pitching behind Manaea, but the senior right hander is having a fantastic 2013. In 53 IP he is 3-4 (but we all know the win stat is greatly flawed) with a 2.89 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2/1 strikeout to walk ratio, and a .206 batting average against. Those numbers are better then many top starters across the country.

Daniel Peterson (51.2 IP, 4.53 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 42 Ks, 10BB, .321 BAA) and Tyler Fehringer (27.1 IP, 4.61 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 27 Ks, 13BBs, .261 BAA) have the majority of the other starts and have not done nearly as well. However, with Manaea and Moore plus a not terrible combination in the third slot, ISU has a strong starting core.

Relief Pitching
The bullpen is a bit more of a mixed bag and this is a place ISU needs to improve. While it may be overshadowed because the Sycamores rely on their starters, not having a strong bullpen has been a season killer for countless baseball teams.

Courtesy: gosycamores.com

Kurt Kudrecki is the standout reliever throwing 27 innings with a 1.67 ERA, .96 WHIP, .189 BAA, 22Ks, and 8BBs. To put it lightly, that is dirty and Kudrecki can be considered an elite reliever. Unfortunately for the Sycamores no one else really qualifies as even a "good" relief pitcher. Aside from his six starts, Fehringer has made eight relief appearances (his stats are above). Greg Kuhlman has 23.2 IP out of the pen with a 6.08 ERA and a .301 BAA. Josh Dove has pitched 16 innings with a 4.50 ERA and .333 BAA. Josh Negele has tossed 13.2 innings with six walks and two strikeouts while allowing a .315 BAA. The rest of the bullpen is similar with unimpressive numbers, so we have definitely found a weak spot.

Offense
As I mentioned earlier, the Sycamores are not Earl Weaver's Orioles waiting for the three run home run. There is not much power on this club, but they play to their strengths showing a great deal of devotion to small ball by advancing runners and using speed to score runs.

Courtesy: indianastatesman.com

Robby Ort is the most recognizable name in the lineup and he is putting together a solid campaign although nothing incredible. Ort is hitting .299 with a .322 on base percentage, .438 slugging percentage, 26 runs batted in, 21 runs, and 5/7 in steals. By no means is that a bad line, but if Ort is considered one of the better hitters (with only one home run) his on base percentage should be higher. 

Koby Kraemer is putting together a very nice season with the bat. He is hitting .314, .393 OBP, .462 SLG, 20 R, 17 RBI, and 6/9 in steals. Can't ask for much more; he's getting on base and finding ways to score. Jordan Pearson has hit a bit with a .289 BA, .357 OBP, but it is only in 18 games with 38 at bats. Owen Conway is in a similar boat hitting .274, .337 OBP, but has only scored nine runs with two steals in 84 at bats.

Landon Curry has shown excellent speed and ability to do damage on the base paths stealing 15/20 and scoring 22 runs. The problem is that Curry is hitting .254 with a .346 OBP. The OBP isn't terrible, but for a game predicated on speed Curry needs to find more ways to get on first. Mike Fitzgerald plays catcher so you don't necessarily expect monster numbers, but a .202 BA, .325 OBP, .298 SLG won't cut it. Fitzgerlad and Tyler Wampler both have 104 at bats with similarly questionable production. Wampler is also hitting .202 with a .308 OBP and a .212 SLG.

Looking at the rest of the offense I see similar issues with players simply not getting on base enough or hitting for a high enough average to compensate for the Sycamores' lack of power.

Defense
I've seen Indiana State play some excellent defense in certain games while making troublesome errors in others. I figured they played pretty decent defense and obviously the sampling of defensive metrics in college baseball are few and far between. Overall, the Sycamores are fielding at a .976 clip compared to .974 for their opponents. ISU has made 32 errors while their opponents have made 34. With that I would deem ISU's defense right at average or above average.

Courtesy: gosycamores.com

Conclusion
Indiana State does not have issues in the starting rotation even though the third slot is below average. Manaea and Moore are two top starters who give the Sycamores a chance to win games. Relief pitching is definitely a problem for the Sycamores with only one top caliber reliever surrounded by guys who can be scarcely relied on. If ISU gets into a situation where multiple relievers are needed it probably won't end well. As expected, the offense is all about speed and moving runners over as ISU only has five total homer runs. The biggest issue is players are not getting on base enough for that to be effective. For the small ball game to work hitters need to be showing OBPs around .370 not .330. The defense may not be a major issue, but for a club that is trying to win with pitching and small ball an elite level defense is necessary. Don't forget the big differential for ISU at home and away. They clearly are much more comfortable at Bob Warn field where they play 12 of their remaining 17 games. I get the feeling that the Sycamores are capable of more, especially hitting and getting on base. They still have time to make a move in the MVC, but the numbers say around .500 might be their destiny.